Visualization of my model of the Italian population based on the data published by ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics).
For checking the model, calculation by calculation, visit my GitHub repository Saturday-Morning-Projects, and don't hesitate to contribute!
Tips for visualization: best way is to browse the web page on a computer, as you can hover the mouse on the plots and check the data in detail (often more convenient than comparing the colors to the legend). Still acceptable for smartphone visualization, it is better to turn it horizontal.
I need to make some assumptions to forecast the future, therefore I will consider 9 scenarios obtained by combining 3 scenarios for the fertility rate and 3 for the net migration balance
Scenarios for the fertility rate: lowering to 0.0 in 2100, constant, and increasing to 2.0 in 2100
Scenarios for the net migration balance: null net migration since this year, constant (average since 2002), increasing to 5-times the current value in 2100
I use the past data (2002-2024) for the population older than 60 to fit and exponential decaying fit. Note that we expect improving life conditions due to care technology.
Visualize here the past (fitted) and future (predicted) population growth rate by age. For the second one I'm not considering the net migration balance: it will be added later according to the scenario considered.
Here you can see the forecast of the population by age for the 9 scenarios. The population is divided into single-year age groups. The 18-45 age window highlighted represent the age at which couples are expected to have children according to the fertility rate.
Summing all up for the 9 scenarios.
Note that the baseline scenario (constant fertility & migration) is quite similar to the latest ISTAT projections (see page 24, "istat mediano" red curve).
Assuming an average age of 20 years old to start working, and keeping constant an average historical ratio of 2.2 working people per retired person (which I think is to low and needs further investigation), I can forecast the expected retirement age for the 9 scenarios.
Any comment? Write me!
